Growth & Justice has a new logo and a new website, so it’s only fitting for our newsletter to get an update too. Today we are releasing the first issue of The Progress Report a twice a year publication that will give you an in-depth look at our progress towards making Minnesota’s economy more prosperous and fair. The Progress Report will feature stories about what we’re working on and how we’re making an impact.

In this issue:

• Don't miss out on seeing Van Jones
  We will stop selling tickets to Rebuild the Dream: Urban Job Development with featured speaker Van Jones at 4 p.m. on Friday, May 17th. There will only be a limited number available at the door so get your tickets now!
  
  Join us this Sunday, May 19th at 5 p.m.
  
  $10 – Students
  $25 – Speech Only
  $100 – Speech & Reception
  
  Reserve your seat before it’s too late!
  
  This event is being generously sponsored by:
  The Jay & Rose Phillips Family Foundation of Minnesota, AM950, Tom & Marlene Kayser, Jennifer Martin, BlueGreen Alliance, A Minnesota Without Poverty, Headwaters Foundation for Justice, David Fisher, Jim Hart, Vernae & Michael Hasbargen, Bud & Carol Hayden, Joel & Laurie Kramer, James Lenfestey, and Betsey Whitbeck.
  
  All proceeds will go to support the work of Growth & Justice.
  
   
• Growth & Justice celebrates 10 years
  Growth & Justice celebrated its 10th year in March. Learn what we have accomplished in that short period of time and find out what we’re doing next.
   
• Workforce Equity for a Competitive Economy
  Growth & Justice has launched a new project that will highlight workforce and economic development models that show real promise for reducing racial and economic disparities.
   
• Former Growth & Justice interns flourish in policy roles
  We’ve had a lot of interns over the years and many of them have moved on to find their place as policy influencers and advocates in Minnesota and beyond.
   
• 2013 Legislative session update
  Since January 3rd we have been at the Capitol advocating for smart investments in education and transportation and pushing a responsible way to pay for these investments. Learn more about all our efforts shaping the debate.
   
• Our Annual Donor List
  With help from generous folks from across Minnesota, we’ll keep advancing progressive policies that ensure a just and more equitable state. Thank you!

Read more about these topics and find other great articles in the electronic version of The Progress Report – Spring 2013 today!

The latest newsletter from Catholic Charities of Minneapolis and St. Paul cites a Wilder Foundation estimate that at any given time there are 2,500 homeless youth (basically teen-agers or under the age of 21) in our state. Many of our dropouts and low-achieving students come from this population and our economy is damaged long-term if we fail them.

One of the more important and yet modest line items in Gov. Dayton's proposed new state budget provides new funding for major improvements in homeless youth services. Catholic Charities is pushing for a state investment of $8 million for this purpose and the key supporting organizations for the Minnesota Homeless Youth Act are impressive, from the Bremer Foundation to Lutheran Social Services to  Homes for All, an alliance of more than 40  organizations working toward housing solutions for Minnesota. 

This funding at the crucial spigot end of the education pipeline should be viewed as investment rather than charity. Intervention at this stage can mean the difference between young people being dependent or independent, between being part of our costly corrections system or our productive commerce system.

I like what Catholic Charities CEO Tim Marx said in the newsletter: "Youth are resilient and deserve a chance to reach their potential as students, workers, and future builders of our community. The alternative is bad for all Minnesotans, as youth slip through the cracks and spend much of their lives, and too many of our collective resources, in emergency rooms and other costly public systems.''

But I don't recall ever hearing as many tax opponents acknowledge, as they made their sincere case against losing tax exemptions on their own business, that our communities do need more revenue for public investment and for dealing with demographic challenges.    Time after time I heard these business owners or their association leaders, who are also citizens,  say that they supported or understood the need for more revenue, just "please, not on me or my customers, this time.''  And when all the opponents got through testifying, alternating one-for-one with those who favored the governor's plan, there were still more testifiers left who favored the reasonable increases in Dayton's plan, and the badly needed investments on the budget side, from early childhood education to transportation to workforce training.   I didn't hear nearly as many angry diatribes against government and taxes in general as I've heard in previous years.

That consensus for more revenue comes through in the Star Tribune's Sunday poll, showing  once again that a majority favor restoring higher income tax rates on the highest income margins, while opinion is evely divided on expanding the sales tax base to more consumer services.   A clear majority opposes ending the exemptions for so-called "business-to-business'' services.

This consensus for "reasonably more'' actually is not new.   Polls show support for revenue sufficiency was strong all through the 12 years of rule by one governor whose slogan was  "give it all back'' and another whose central theme was "no new taxes,'' and  legislative majorities that took the same hard and uncompromising line in 2011-2012.   Especially after budget crises began recurring regularly in 2001 and beyond, polls consistently showed that most Minnesotans thought revenue increases ought to be at least part of the solution for budget shortfalls.  That happened also to be the position of almost all former governors in all three parties through that period.    And in almost every reputable poll I've seen, most Minnesotans think those who have been reaping almost all the benefits of increased productivity in recent years, and who have been paying a smaller percentage of their big increases  in state-local taxes, ought to contribute reasonably more.

Dane Smith

The point of his anecdote was that if Minnesota lowered its sales tax and broadened its tax base—as economists recommend—this lucrative cross-border school clothing traffic would dry up, with terrible consequences for Minnesota's border city retailers.

We're hearing a version of the same tale, now that Governor Dayton's tax reform plan has finally taken the advice of both Growth & Justice and Governor Pawlenty's 2009 tax reform commission to lower the tax rate and extend the sales tax base to a broader range of consumer products and consumer services.

This week, Rep. Pat Garofalo objected on TPT's Almanac: At the Capitol. He reported that a North Dakota Democrat was proposing eliminating the state's tax on clothing as a form of tax relief. 

"Retail businesses in border communities like Moorhead will be destroyed," Garofalo said, attracting blogger Dave Mindeman's skeptical response:

Fact: North Dakota sales tax is currently 5.0%. Fargo, ND which is the booming ND metropolis across the river from Moorhead adds a 2% city tax. So here [are] the facts. Under Dayton's tax proposal, Moorhead (which adds no city tax) would be 5.5%. Fargo would charge 7.0% Clothing may be exempt in the future, but Moorhead will still have clothing under $100 exempt as well.

Judging from comments left on the post and on Twitter, the border-crossing mythology is too well-entrenched to be swept away by simple math.

But let's suppose North Dakota finally drops its state clothing tax just when the gap with Minnesota is closing.

Then what? Will Minnesota border towns really suffer? Were North Dakota retailers in the thriving cities of Fargo and Grand Forks suffering in silence all these years?

As the Minnesota legislator said in that 2007 hearing, should I believe you or my lying eyes?

Certainly one person's personal experience can be more persuasive than actual scientific studies—especially when it confirms his biases—but let's push ahead anyway.

As you can imagine, economic theory predicts that consumers will seek to lower the costs of goods where a sufficient tax differential exists along with relative ease of acquiring the products from the alternative source.

We think we see this principle at work with internet sales that make it easy to circumvent state sales taxes—but application to the border situation is clouded because the internet sales are often deeply discounted as well.

Looking at the literature studying economic activity in response to sales tax rates, I found research that supports the following points:

Response to differences in the sales tax depends on proximity of border communities. In other words, the farther you have to drive to avoid the tax, the less likely you are to do so.

How much does distance matter? A 2010 Utah study of local option sales taxes PDF* that investigated distance as a variable found increasing the tax rate lowers taxable sales (all else held equal) when there is a jurisdiction with a lower tax rate within 5 km, or about three miles. The effect disappears altogether within about 40 miles. This is to be expected for low-cost goods and everyday commodities. But it also appears to hold for expensive major purchases such as new or used automobiles.

Occasional forays to other markets are probably more memorable than routine local trips to buy the same goods, causing people to overestimate the total economic impact of their trip to buy tax-free products.

Clothing purchases appear less sensitive to tax-influenced decisions. When different types of goods are taken into account, several studies found only modest evidence that consumers would alter their consumption or search for lower tax rates on food, clothing and general consumer goods.

Small tax differentials have small effects. Another study based on a natural experiment compared a local option sales tax increase that resulted in a one-half percent difference between neighboring cities. The town with the higher tax rate showed a modest retail sales decline, but drop did not affect the number of businesses, and the reduced sales revenue for the town was more than offset by the increase in tax revenue.

In cases like cigarette taxes, where cross-border differences are large and the product is regularly consumed, we see clear evidence of cross-border activity.

Bottom line, there's some support for the economic theory or it wouldn't be a theory for long, but people tend over-estimate the larger effect of their own behavior and observations.

Dayton's proposal is a target precisely because it takes on the difficult and sometimes contradictory outcomes of tax reform.

Bruce Nustad, president of the Minnesota Retailers Association, for example, doesn't like the clothing tax: “We like the idea of lowering the overall sales tax rate. The tradeoffs, though, are a little difficult for us.”

Which is maybe why there have been so few serious attempts at reform, despite the theories.

—Charlie Quimby

* The state of Utah has wide diversity in local option sales taxes, enabling researchers to study differences between adjacent communities without distorting effects by comparing different states.

Among the five counties that form the urban core in Utah and represent 70 percent of the state’s population, every major city in each of the counties has a different tax rate. In several rural counties, there are no differences in the tax rates within the counties, but in twenty-six of the twenty-nine counties in Utah, 30 percent of the local taxing jurisdictions have tax rate different from each other.

The hope comes from the momentous coincidence today of Martin Luther King's official birthday observance and a re-inauguration, after a convincing re-election,  of the first African-American president of the United States. Michelle Obama, a descendant of slaves, is the First Lady of a White House that once was occupied by white slave-holders, and actually built by slaves. This is a remarkable country, capable of extraordinary self-correction, powerful and wealthy because it is governed by its own people, and stronger yet when ALL its people are empowered. We can  expect President Obama will build on the theme in his inauguration speech that we all do better when we ALL do better. While the Obamas have succeeded spectacularly, far too many people of color are still left behind, and economic disparities continue to grow between top incomes and families of all races in the middle-income brackets.

In Minnesota, attention swivels on Tuesday to the release of both a two-year state budget proposal and a major tax system overhual from Gov. Mark Dayton. Minnesota's prosperity rests on an innovative business leadership, to be sure, but also on a  foundation of public investment, in the form of high-quality public education,  physical public works infrastructure, public health and natural resource protection. We need to invest more and more effectively in those things, including early childhood education and post-secondary training,  and Gov. Dayton can be expected to emphasize that this broader prosperity and better government is the end we seek, while taxes merely are one of the means. Minnesotans understand these fundamentals and have long been distinguished by a commitment to public good, as well as private gain. Let's try to keep this in our heads as we all get ready to argue over the details.

Dane Smith

For the piece, I relied on some 2004 numbers from the US Department of Transportation (USDoT). It turns out there are 2006 numbers available. As you might guess, the estimated costs are higher, so the new data doesn't affect my argument.

I updated the earlier post with the new numbers anyway. Growth & Justice wants to bring transparency and impartiality to the discussion, and using the newer information may help avoid confusion over dueling numbers somewhere down the line.

A look at the 2006 report reveals some interesting changes from the 2004 version. To quote the new report:

For this [2006] report, the modeling procedures for estimating the highway investment scenarios have been modified to assume that the funding to support increases in highway and bridge investment above 2004 levels would be financed in a manner consistent with the current financing structure, which is primarily supported by user fees. A feedback loop has also been added to account for the impact that this change in the ]]> 2012-12-11T20:02:01+00:00 http://growthandjustice.org/blog/2012-12/transportation1 http://growthandjustice.org/blog/2012-12/transportation1#When:20:02:01Z Any hard-line, no-new-taxes, market-solutions-only types had to be disappointed if they went to this week's American Experiment Luncheon Forum: "Safeguarding and Rebuilding America's Physical Infrastructure: The Indispensable Role of Markets."

And why not?

Robert Poole, director of transportation studies for the libertarian Reason Foundation, came to town in the wake of the I-35W bridge collapse to talk with officials and the public about the nation]]> 2012-12-11T20:02:01+00:00 http://growthandjustice.org/blog/2012-12/governments-innovate-and-improve-all-the-time-and-sometimes-it-makes-the-ne http://growthandjustice.org/blog/2012-12/governments-innovate-and-improve-all-the-time-and-sometimes-it-makes-the-ne#When:20:01:37Z No news is good news, they say.  And in the news business, good news too often is NOT news, or sensational enough to display prominently.  But one distinctive cover page of the Star Tribune]]> 2012-12-11T20:01:37+00:00 http://growthandjustice.org/blog/2012-11/how-training-and-educating-the-poor-could-improve-our-economy http://growthandjustice.org/blog/2012-11/how-training-and-educating-the-poor-could-improve-our-economy#When:14:27:45Z Joe Selvaggio is a celebrated former priest who has spent nearly half a century helping poor folks become more productive and less poor,  lately through the MicroGrants program and before that, Project for Pride in Living.

He also recently authored one of the most inspiring and articulate cases I've ever seen for investing in the human potential of our large and growing underclass.   His powerful essay appeared in the Star Tribune on Sunday Nov. 18, and was headlined "Think of the poor as part of the solution: They're a source of economic growth. That's why we can afford to help them.''

Selvaggio is the soul of charity but he's not a naive do-gooder who sees poor folks as purely victims.  And he argues that they ultimately are responsible for grabbing on and pulling up on the hands that are  offered from public and non-profit workforce training providers.  And he also concludes that governments need to invest more in broad-based self-sufficiency and productivity efforts instead of just focusing on direct aid and entitlements.    Citing the success of the Harlem Children's Zone and other non-profits such as Twin Cities Rise! and Summit Academy OIC, Selvaggio notes:  

"Entitlements seem to be anathema to the right, left and center.  But job-training programs are politically acceptable to left, right and center.   The private nonprofit sector has proven that they work, but philanthropy can't do it alone.  Now it's time for government to put muscle behind them...Change the paradigm and think of the poor as locked in a cocoon, ready to develop into a productive creator of wealth.''

Our policy-makers in Minnesota need to find what's working best in in preparing and moving chronically unemployed or under-employed folks in to the decent jobs that are being created in our new economy and right in their communities,  whether it's health-care, transportation, financial industries, or construction.   Growth & Justice is beginning a project that will illuminate those models.   And our legislators and other elected officials must be ready and willing to invest in them.   Because this really is an investment that pays off for everybody.

 

Dane Smith   

]]> 2012-11-26T14:27:45+00:00 http://growthandjustice.org/blog/2012-11/reasonable-conservatives-making-sense-of-historic-sweep http://growthandjustice.org/blog/2012-11/reasonable-conservatives-making-sense-of-historic-sweep#When:14:32:23Z Some of the most interesting election aftermath analysis is coming  from seasoned conservatives with a broader view of the sweep of history, and nobody since Nov. 6 has laid this out with more panoramic vision than David Frum.   In this CNN excerpt from his larger explanation of why Romney lost, Frum dismantles the notion perpetrated by many on Fox News, and Mitt Romney himself, that America is now lost to entitlement "takers.''  

"America is not a society divided between "makers'' and "takers.'' Instead, almost all of us proceed through a life cycle where we sometimes make and sometimes take, as we pass from schooling to employment to retirement.  The line between "making" and "taking'' is not a racial line.  The biggest government program we have, Medicare, benefits a population that is 85 percent white...The United States did not vote for socialism.  It could not do so, because neither party offers socialism.  Both parties champion a free enterprise economy cushioned by a certain amount of soical insurance.   The Democrats (mostly) want more social insurance; the Republicans want less.  National politics is a contest to move the line of scrimmage, in a game where where there's no such thing as a forward pass, only a straight charge ahead at the defensive line (and) whatever you think of the Obama record, it's worth keeping in mind that by any measure, free enterprise has been winning the game for a long, long time to this point."

Frum then describes in some detail 50 years of movement away from government regulation and high marginal federal income tax rates, which happened under Democrats and Republicans.   He notes that Marxism was still a live intellectual force in the early 1960s and is now in complete retreat and disrespute internationally.   Frum doesen't get into the most important underlying fact of all:  the alleged "makers" in the top 1 percent (or 5 percent or 10 percent) have "taken'' almost all the growth in the economy over the last decade and now have a greater share of income and wealth than at any time since the Depression.

Finally, Frum harshly chastises the racial animosity implied in some post-election commentary and his points remind me of the more embracing brand of Republican philosophy that prevailed in Minnesota from our early statehood under Abraham Lincoln (can't wait to see the movie), through Govs. John S. Pillsbury, Harold Stassen and  Arne Carlson.

"To assume from the start that only certain ethnicities will contribute, and that others aspire only to grab, is not only ugly prejudice; it is also self-destructive delusion.  People of all backgrounds want to create, save and contribute to society.   A party of the center-right should make them all feel at home, regardless of how they pronounce their last name, the complexion of their skin or the way in which they express love and build family...We need more sensible conservatives.  As for the feeble conservatives, they should take a couple of aspirin and then stay quietly indoors until the temper has subsided and they are ready to say and do something useful again.

Amen.

 

Dane Smith

 

 

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